Learn Session — 2026-02-04 21:30
Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Predictions refined | 0 (signals confirmed, no changes) |
| New predictions proposed | 6 creative ideas |
| Predictions resolved | 0 |
| Calibration accuracy | N/A (no resolutions) |
Active Predictions Reviewed
| ID | Prediction | Confidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| ST-1 | Mid-tier SaaS valuations drop 30%+ | 90% | Confirmed by signals |
| LT-1 | Anthropic ships most impactful agentic product 2026 | 65% | Mixed signals |
| LT-2 | NVDA P/E compression if efficient training norm | 25% | Counter-signals |
| A-1 | 3+ top SaaS companies pivot to "AI-native" messaging | 70% | Confirmed by ClickUp |
| A-2 | SaaS AI acquisitions fail to lift stock | 65% | First data point (ClickUp/Codegen) |
Signals Found
ST-1: SaaS Valuations Collapse
Source: Hacker News, X/Twitter, WSJ
| Signal | Source | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| "AI is killing B2B SaaS" article (291 pts, 444 comments) | HN | Narrative accelerating |
| Morgan Stanley: SaaS basket lagged Nasdaq by 40 points | HN article | Hard data confirmation |
| HubSpot and Klaviyo down ~30% | HN article | Specific examples |
| Microsoft Copilot only 3.3% paid users, ~3% M365 penetration | WSJ | Even Microsoft struggling |
| Series E CEO cancelled $30K SaaS contract, rebuilt with APIs | HN article | Behavioral change |
Judgment: Signals confirm thesis. "SaaSpocalypse" entering mainstream. Maintain 90%.
LT-1: Anthropic Most Impactful Agentic Product
Source: Techmeme, HN, X/Twitter
| Signal | Source | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Anthropic Super Bowl ad campaign | Anthropic Blog | Aggressive consumer push |
| Sam Altman called ads "funny but dishonest" | X/Twitter | Competitive tension |
| Google Gemini: 750M MAU, 8M enterprise seats in 4 months | TechCrunch | Google scale threat |
| fluid.sh - "Claude Code for Infrastructure" | HN | Ecosystem building |
Judgment: Anthropic making bold moves, but Google's scale is formidable. Maintain 65%.
LT-2: NVDA Multiple Compression
Source: Techmeme, X/Twitter
| Signal | Source | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Google capex: $175-185B guidance for 2026 | Techmeme | Hyperscaler demand strong |
| NVIDIA HBM4 tests nearing completion | X/Twitter | Execution on track |
| Intel CEO announces plans to challenge NVIDIA | X/Twitter | Competition coming but late |
Judgment: Counter-thesis signals. Demand remains strong. Maintain 25%.
A-1 & A-2: Enterprise SaaS AI Pivots/Acquisitions
Source: MarcaMoney, X/Twitter
| Signal | Source | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| ClickUp acquires Codegen (AI coding startup) | MarcaMoney | First A-1/A-2 data point |
| ClickUp building "Super Agents" | Same | AI-native positioning |
| Codegen founder becomes Head of AI at ClickUp | Same | Talent acquisition angle |
Judgment: ClickUp is textbook example. Watching for stock reaction (A-2 test). Maintain 70%/65%.
Creative Prediction Ideas Generated
Master requested non-obvious prediction ideas. Generated 6 using Creative Prompts:
1. "The AI Therapist Backlash" (Second-order effect)
- P(75%) — Major media cover story on AI therapy harm by Q4 2026
- Why non-obvious: Everyone focused on AI therapy as solution, not the backlash
2. "Insurance Companies Become AI Power Players" (Who benefits)
- P(60%) — 2+ insurers announce AI underwriting divisions by EOY 2026
- Why non-obvious: Watching builders, not risk modelers
3. "Gemini Overtakes Claude in Developer Mindshare" (Opposite thesis)
- P(35%) — Higher developer mindshare by EOY 2026
- Why non-obvious: Current narrative favors Claude, but Google has distribution
4. "AI Agents Kill the Gig Economy Premium" (Connection)
- P(55%) — Fiverr/Upwork reports 10%+ price decline by Q3 2026
- Why non-obvious: Job displacement focus misses gig platforms hit first
5. "The First AI-Generated Fraud at Scale" (Question no one asks)
- P(70%) — Public case of >$10M AI-enabled financial fraud by EOY 2026
- Why non-obvious: Debate is jobs, not criminals with agentic tools
6. "AI Makes Remote Work Surveillance Unnecessary" (Question no one asks)
- P(45%) — Fortune 500 abandons surveillance for AI output measurement by 2027
- Why non-obvious: Narrative is more surveillance, not less
Status: Awaiting Master selection for PREDICTIONS.md addition.
Calibration Status
| Confidence Range | Active | Resolved | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80-100% | 1 (ST-1) | 0 | — |
| 60-79% | 3 (LT-1, A-1, A-2) | 0 | — |
| 40-59% | 0 | 0 | — |
| 20-39% | 1 (LT-2) | 0 | — |
No resolutions yet. First calibration data expected when ST-1 resolves (June 30).
Next Actions
- Master selects creative prediction to track
- Add selected prediction to PREDICTIONS.md
- Monitor ClickUp stock for A-2 test (acquisition announcement reaction)
- Watch for more SaaS AI acquisition announcements
- Next signal search: 1 week
Session Notes
- Output file was almost skipped — skill updated to make mandatory
- Creative Prompts produced 6 non-obvious angles
- Signals strongly confirm SaaS collapse thesis (ST-1)
- No confidence changes this session — signals confirmed positions