Stock Watchlist
What to monitor for each position. Grouped by thesis cluster. For theses and confidence, see PT-* entries in PREDICTIONS.md.
AI Compute (PT-1)
- NVDA (NVIDIA) — Watch: Blackwell/Rubin cycle, data center demand, China restrictions
- TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor) — Watch: 2nm ramp, geopolitical risk, Apple/NVIDIA orders
- AMD — Watch: MI300 sales, data center share, Intel comparison
- AVGO (Broadcom) — Watch: VMware integration, custom silicon wins, networking
Big Tech AI (PT-2)
- GOOG (Alphabet/Google) — Watch: Gemini progress, Search share, regulatory, YouTube, Cloud
- MSFT (Microsoft) — Watch: Azure growth, Copilot adoption, OpenAI relationship
- AMZN (Amazon) — Watch: AWS growth, AI efficiency, retail margins, logistics
Storage Cycle (PT-5)
- SNDK (SanDisk/WDC) — Watch: NAND pricing, data center storage demand
Value/Defensive (PT-4)
- BRK/B (Berkshire Hathaway) — Watch: Buffett moves, cash deployment, insurance
- QQQ/QQQM (Nasdaq 100 ETF) — Watch: Tech sector rotation, macro shifts
Risk Signals
- China/Taiwan tensions — HIGH — TSM, NVDA
- Supply chain disruption — HIGH — TSM, NVDA, AMD
- AI regulation — MEDIUM — NVDA, GOOG, MSFT
- Antitrust action — MEDIUM — GOOG, AMZN, MSFT