Stock Portfolio
Portfolio positions for monitoring and thesis tracking.
Thesis predictions tracked in: PREDICTIONS.md → Portfolio Thesis Predictions (PT-1 through PT-5)
Active Positions
| Ticker | Company | Thesis Cluster | Watch For |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA | PT-1: AI Compute | Blackwell/Rubin cycle, data center demand, China restrictions |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor | PT-1: AI Compute | 2nm ramp, geopolitical risk, Apple/NVIDIA orders |
| AMD | AMD | PT-1: AI Compute | MI300 sales, data center share, Intel comparison |
| AVGO | Broadcom | PT-1: AI Compute | VMware integration, custom silicon wins, networking |
| GOOG | Alphabet/Google | PT-2: Big Tech AI | Gemini progress, Search share, regulatory, YouTube, Cloud |
| MSFT | Microsoft | PT-2: Big Tech AI | Azure growth, Copilot adoption, OpenAI relationship |
| AMZN | Amazon | PT-2: Big Tech AI | AWS growth, AI efficiency, retail margins, logistics |
| SNDK | SanDisk (WDC) | PT-5: Storage Cycle | NAND pricing, data center storage demand |
| BRK/B | Berkshire Hathaway | PT-4: Value/Defensive | Buffett moves, cash deployment, insurance |
| QQQ/QQQM | Nasdaq 100 ETF | PT-4: Value/Defensive | Tech sector rotation, macro shifts |
Thesis Clusters (Quick Reference)
| Cluster | Confidence | Positions |
|---|---|---|
| PT-1: AI Compute Dominance | 80% | NVDA, TSM, AMD, AVGO |
| PT-2: Big Tech AI Integration | 70% | GOOG, MSFT, AMZN |
| PT-3: SaaS Disruption | 90% | (avoid/short) |
| PT-4: Value/Defensive | 65% | BRK/B, QQQ/QQQM |
| PT-5: Storage/Memory Cycle | 55% | SNDK |
Full thesis details: See PREDICTIONS.md → Portfolio Thesis Predictions
Risk Signals to Monitor
| Risk | Priority | Affected Tickers |
|---|---|---|
| China/Taiwan tensions | HIGH | TSM, NVDA |
| AI regulation | MEDIUM | NVDA, GOOG, MSFT |
| Antitrust action | MEDIUM | GOOG, AMZN, MSFT |
| Supply chain disruption | HIGH | TSM, NVDA, AMD |
Signal Legend
| Signal | Meaning |
|---|---|
| 🟢 BUY | Positive development supporting thesis |
| 🟡 HOLD | Neutral, thesis unchanged |
| 🔴 SELL | Thesis broken or major risk |
| ⚠️ WATCH | Needs monitoring, not actionable yet |
To add/remove positions: Edit this file. Skills will pick up changes on next run.